Tiếng ViệtVietnam’s wood export industry is entering 2025 with many positive prospects, especially in the U.S. market, where demand for wood and wood products is expected to continue growing strongly due to the recovery of the real estate sector. Meanwhile, other key markets such as China and the EU face economic challenges that could affect import demand. Given this context, Vietnamese wood enterprises need to capitalize on opportunities in the U.S. market while enhancing product value to maintain a competitive edge.
This article will provide a detailed analysis of Vietnam’s wood export performance in 2024, forecast market trends for 2025, and examine factors that may influence business strategies in the industry.
Export Growth in 2024
In December 2024, Vietnam’s wood and wood product exports increased by 17.9% compared to the same period the previous year. This result contributed to raising the total export revenue of the sector to $16.28 billion for the year, marking a 20.9% increase from 2023 and surpassing the set target of $15.2 billion.
U.S. Market Outlook
In 2025, the U.S. will continue to be a key market for Vietnam’s wood industry, particularly as its housing market shows strong signs of recovery. Although the 30-year mortgage interest rate in the U.S. rose slightly by 0.08% in mid-December 2024 to 6.75%, forecasts from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) indicate that the Federal Reserve (FED) may cut interest rates in 2025, potentially lowering mortgage rates to 6.4% by the end of the year.
Additionally, the number of housing construction permits in the U.S. has shown signs of recovery, increasing by 5.2% in December 2024 compared to late November. According to MBS, the rebound of the U.S. real estate market is expected to drive demand for wood and wood products in the latter half of 2025.
Challenges in the Chinese and EU Markets
China
In 2024, China’s economy faced significant difficulties due to the real estate crisis and weakened domestic demand. The Chinese government has eased monetary policies and implemented three interest rate cuts to support growth. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) is expected to continue lowering interest rates to 3.05% by the end of 2025 to stimulate the economy.
However, according to the World Bank, China still faces numerous economic challenges, particularly weak domestic purchasing power and a stagnant real estate market. These issues could negatively impact wood product consumption, especially since China is currently Vietnam’s second-largest wood export market.
EU
The EU region is projected to continue facing difficulties due to declining labor productivity and geopolitical tensions. The OECD has downgraded economic growth forecasts for Germany and France, with projected growth rates of 0.7% and 0.9%, respectively, lower than previous estimates.
Currently, the EU accounts for only 3.3% of Vietnam’s total wood export revenue, and wood consumption demand in this region is expected to see little improvement in 2025.
Global Wood Prices Expected to Stabilize
According to MBS, with the FED’s interest rate cuts and the recovery of the U.S. housing market, global wood prices could experience positive growth in the second half of 2025. The average price of wood products is expected to reach around $510 per 1,000 board feet, enabling exporting businesses to stabilize production plans and reduce raw material price fluctuation risks.
The stabilization of wood prices will create favorable conditions for enterprises to invest in production technology, focus on high-value-added wooden furniture products, enhance competitiveness in the international market, and optimize profitability.
Conclusion
In 2025, the U.S. market will remain the primary growth driver for Vietnam’s wood export industry, thanks to the recovery of the real estate sector and declining mortgage rates. Conversely, China and the EU continue to face economic challenges, which may limit their wood import demand. In this context, Vietnamese enterprises must prioritize high-value-added products to maintain a competitive edge.
Source: Gỗ Việt
Stay updated with more industry news HERE.
