The phrase “attaining the goal” is a commonly used and expansive idea in Vietnam wood industry, extending beyond its literal definition. It is prevalent in diverse domains such as culture, sports, and the economy. It signifies the successful and proper progression of a sector, domain, competition, or event, aligning with plans and accomplishing intended objectives.
As we near the end of 2023, there is a certain stability in the socio-economic scenario, although the expected pace has not been reached. Despite this, there remains a sense of hope and optimism.
In the preceding year, despite the challenges arising from the repercussions of COVID-19, a global export market contraction, geopolitical uncertainties, and escalating raw material and transportation costs, the Vietnamese economy displayed remarkable progress. The overall landscape was not only noteworthy and comprehensive, showcasing positive aspects, but also emphasized significant growth achievements. Notably, the wood industry achieved a significant milestone, reaching an impressive 16.5 billion USD.
This noteworthy accomplishment has propelled the wood industry forward, with many anticipating that it can reach an export milestone of 17 billion USD in 2023. The wood industry has sustained a continuous growth trend for 10–15 years, boasting an annual growth rate ranging from 10–15%. This indicates the sustainable development of the wood industry over the past two decades.
Nevertheless, following a phase of substantial expansion, it is believed that Vietnamese wood enterprises are transitioning into a comfort zone, concentrating on manufacturing products primarily for the domestic market rather than actively pursuing international buyers for export. This shift signifies a strategic decision to await the arrival of international buyers following the previous period of robust growth.
This tendency is easily understandable, given our inclination to exercise caution in the context of swift development. There are concerns about the potential uncontrollable scale and pace of growth, which could ultimately result in a breakdown.
Reflecting on the past year, amidst ongoing global economic challenges, the U.S. market has witnessed emerging trends, particularly concerning consumer demand influenced by factors like pricing. Many experts predict that with decreasing inventory and the recovery of the U.S. real estate market, the wood industry will experience a surge in orders, leading to a robust recovery towards the year’s end. However, it’s crucial to emphasize that this is still a forecast.
By the end of November, wood export turnover surpassed 12 billion USD, indicating a decline compared to the same period the previous year. Despite the persistently negative growth, the downward trend has shown signs of narrowing, offering a positive indication within the current overall scenario.
In light of this, experts project that the aggregate exports of wood and wood products for the entire year 2023 will likely surpass only 14 billion USD, falling nearly 3 billion USD short of the initial annual target. The industry has not lived up to the expectations set at the beginning of the year.
Nevertheless, attaining the goal in this scenario is somewhat aspirational and does not capture the full context of the global economy. This perspective takes into account the influence of geopolitical changes and fluctuations in raw material and transportation costs.
Hence, despite falling short of the projected milestone of 17 billion USD, the overall context suggests that if the total exports for the year reach 14.5 billion USD, it still signifies a more favorable outcome compared to the pre-pandemic period, particularly from 2020 and earlier. It is only marginally lower than the figures recorded in 2021 and 2022. This timeframe corresponds to the influence of COVID-19, prompting a significant number of individuals to stay at home, resulting in an increased demand for home renovation or relocation.
This indicates that amid numerous difficulties and challenges, such as reduced orders and labor constraints, the wood industry has exhibited resilience and achieved a noteworthy export figure. Despite encountering various obstacles, the wood industry remains a crucial player in the country’s economy, upholding its status as a leading export sector in 2023.
On the flip side, encouraging signals from the U.S. market, such as a decline in inflation, an upswing in employment, and positive growth in construction and home sales, have instilled significant optimism in the Vietnamese wood industry. Despite persistent geopolitical conflicts, one certainty is that inventories will reduce, and American buyers are anticipated to resume imports, albeit potentially not at the same scale as before.
As per a recent retail report by Colliers for the fall of 2023, almost 49% of retail chains in the U.S. have expansion plans for the next 5 years. By the end of November, the U.S. retail sector will maintain its growth trajectory, even amid various economic pressures faced by consumers. These developments offer promising signs for the furniture retail sector.
At the same time, Vietnamese furniture businesses are actively capitalizing on opportunities in the early stages of the upcoming year. Our satisfaction lies not only in achieving the goal but also in relishing the joy throughout the entire journey of the wood industry.
Source: goviet.org.vn
